Carnegie Endowment
SCRI’s director, Laurie Laybourn, provided commentary for a piece by Carnegie Endowment ‘Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?’. Also quoted was co-author of our report on derailment risks, James Dyke.
“In some ways, Europe’s leadership remains consistent. A 90 percent cut to emissions by 2040 conforms with previous climate goals, which have been ambitious relative to the rest of the world—though within a global context that is failing to stay below an average temperature increase of 1.5°C. So, leadership in goal setting largely remains.
The problem has always been whether European leadership can extend to meeting those goals. When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, borrowing costs were low and the world order seemed stable. Ten years later, much progress has been made in emission reductions. But the querulous negotiations behind the 2040 goal show how a more chaotic world can be used as an excuse to lower ambition.
Yet, the world will only get more chaotic as it shoots past the 1.5°C limit. This will require a different type of leadership. Europe must also contemplate the worst, like the passing of a tipping point in Atlantic Ocean circulations. The continent would be pushed into deep freeze while African monsoons would be disrupted. Risks like these demand new collaborative leadership drawn along lines that recognize the shared vulnerability of the future, not the old alliances of the past.”
