https://www.scri.org.uk/publications daily 0.75 2025-11-11 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-new-statesman monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/252425c4-1b08-4de5-b36c-fd1379d6c68f/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+08.36.47.png Publications - Comment: The New Statesman - Our report on ‘derailment risk’ was covered by The New Statesman in a piece co-authored by Laurie Laybourn and Richard Folland. “Urgent policy action is needed. Otherwise, we face the prospect of derailment risk progressively undermining our agency. This should concern investors, policymakers and citizens alike.” https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/chatham-house-how-should-the-world-confront-climate-derailment-risks monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-a-training-toolkit-to-help-organisations-build-readiness-against-climate-derailment-risks monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/55dee17e-50f0-4b0a-8345-9d11b769d346/cau_article_pic_x3.jpg Publications - Comment: A training toolkit to help organisations build readiness against climate derailment risks https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/7be6a527-7f1d-4932-ba46-112ff0fae400/Screenshot+2025-10-27+at+17.17.22.png Publications - Comment: A training toolkit to help organisations build readiness against climate derailment risks - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/27d133c9-54e4-4ab5-9f33-4d2ef205bdb7/cau_article_pic_x1.jpg Publications - Comment: A training toolkit to help organisations build readiness against climate derailment risks - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/report-derailment-risk monthly 0.5 2025-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/17e59709-0e20-45a7-b659-f37cbfb2d963/Screenshot+2025-10-27+at+17.27.42.png Publications - Report: derailment risk - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/report-raising-awareness-of-earth-system-tipping-points-implications-for-eu-governance monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/report monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/46ffe30f-dbe6-4b67-80d1-d52fc9935a47/2008+global+food+crisis.png Publications - Report: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis This figure depicts (on the left-hand side) long term simultaneous stresses (SS) which have built up over time. It also depicts long-fuse big bang (LFBB) processes, which represent the accumulation of stresses within systems until the systems’ coping capacity is exceeded (system overload), resulting in a sudden, non-linear shift in system behaviour. In the energy system, EROI is energy return on investment, which is the ratio of the energy output from an energy resource to the energy input to obtain that output. The figure shows how long-term stresses in food and energy systems have led to the overload of these systems. It also depicts the interaction between these systems (through the transmission channels of energy input into food prices and of biofuel output from cropland into energy systems) that effectively coupled these systems together. The food system, in its overloaded state, was susceptible to the trigger of the Australian drought, depicted in the middle of the figure, leading to a food price surge. As depicted on the right-hand side of the figure, this food price surge was compounded by a gas price surge from the overloaded energy system, exacerbating the resultant global food crisis. This crisis in turn had multisystemic knock-on effects (in a ramifying cascade—RC), including widespread political instability. The ‘X’ symbol depicts compounding stresses (on the left-hand side) and crises (on the right-hand side). Adapted from: Homer-Dixon et al.35. Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis. Ecology and Society, 20(3). https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss3/art6/35—licensed under CC BY 4.0. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/d858c5e3-498f-4d89-8102-0029f39d4c26/2022+global+food+crisis+BIG.png Publications - Report: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis This figure is based on, but further develops, the elements introduced in Fig. 1. As before, the left-hand side depicts long-term stresses. Note that these include specific post-COVID-19 recovery-related stresses additional to those depicted in Fig. 1. In particular it should be noted that the ‘rising energy demand’ element of Fig. 1 was exacerbated by a sharp increase in demand in the post-COVID-19 economic recovery, as depicted in this figure. Similarly, for the global food system, the post-COVID-19 recovery stretched supply chains, adding to the stresses on the food system from rising demand, diminishing land availability and diminishing marginal returns to intensification as depicted in Fig. 1. Rather than a ‘Long-fuse big bang’ system overload as depicted in Fig. 1, this figure shows the trigger of the Russia invasion of Ukraine leading to the materialisation of both an energy and food crisis, stemming from these already stressed, interconnected systems. It also depicts new elements, specifically the underlying political economy context, including concentrations of political and economic power and reliance on a few providers of food and energy commodities, as well as other underlying systemic weaknesses. In food systems, these weaknesses include geographical concentration of production in breadbasket regions, as well as homogenised crop production. In energy systems, these weaknesses include reliance on relatively price-volatile fossil fuel resources. Together these political economy contexts give rise to what we term system architecture vulnerabilities, which make it more likely that intra- and inter-systemic risks and crises will compound and cascade. As with Fig. 1, the ‘X’ symbol depicts compounding stressors (on the left-hand side) and crises (on the right-hand side). Produced by authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/67e44659-e03d-47aa-bc9c-2710babee8ca/41467_2025_62029_Fig3_HTML.webp Publications - Report: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis This figure shows a range of analytical approaches and models, with specific examples given for food and energy systems, ranging from mental models which are not formalised into structured relationships between variables, to mathematical, computer system models which do represent such structured formalisation. Intermediate stages (qualitative narratives, conceptual models and accounting models and tools) represent an increasing extent of formalisation and mathematical structure. Grey-scale differentiation is added only to distinguish categories of analytical approach and has no inherent implication. Each of these analytical approaches can be incorporated into the systemic frameworks in Table 1. It should be noted that mental models can encompass very different boundaries of systems, depending on the question and scale of analysis. Full details in Supplementary Data 1. Produced by authors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/4d35c9af-fc33-48fe-8bbb-d39837596028/A+generalisable+systemic+risk+assessment+methodological+framework..png Publications - Report: A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis The figure depicts (left-hand side) seven systemic risk assessment steps and (right-hand side) seven cross-cutting practices to be applied across each of the assessment steps. The steps are intended to be undertaken in the logical order shown, but the arrows indicate that that each step can and should if necessary, be returned to once other steps have been undertaken. As such, the framework is not prescriptive in its sequencing of steps. The arrow (left-hand side) from the ‘implement, monitor, evaluate and adapt’ step to the other steps is indicative that, once systemic risk assessments and responses have been implemented, they can and should, where necessary, lead to review and revision of each of the other steps. Produced by authors. https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/institute-and-faculty-of-actuaries monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/cvxu18dizn7m2jg7ayewfj33wg8yax monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/national-preparedness-commission monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-security-blind-spot monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/9bd96402-2de8-44c5-8452-086cb8328804/cascades.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out Figure 2.1: As security impacts cascade, they create threats greater than the sum of individual parts Summary graphic to illustrate the impact of cascading risks: the interacting and additive effects of events on wider social and economic systems https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/0773b5d8-3d52-4ad2-a481-77ed96c0131b/SPG.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out FIGURE 2.2: ATLANTIC OCEAN CIRCULATIONS ARE CRITICAL TO UK SECURITY BECAUSE THEY HELP MAINTAIN A STABLE CLIMATE Surface currents (coloured orange) are connected to deep ocean currents (blue) through locations where dense (cold and salty) water sinks, driving the overturning circulation (pink). The AMOC constitutes the whole circulation, while the SPG is a subset of this system that is located south of Greenland. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/064831e8-3597-423c-9cab-f66f550827d4/AGRI+REDUCTION+MAP.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out FIGURE 2.3: AMOC COLLAPSE WOULD CAUSE PROFOUND DAMAGE TO UK FOOD SUPPLY Impact on land use in the UK from an AMOC collapse. The maps show the fraction of land used for arable farming, with a greater share illustrated by a deeper shade of yellow/brown. The left-hand map shows land use in 2020. The right-hand map shows land use after an AMOC collapse and without compensatory irrigation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/dacfa9b8-6a2f-498d-b5d7-6b8a30159f44/Wheat+map.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out FIGURE 2.4: AMOC COLLAPSE WOULD HAVE A CATASTROPHIC IMPACT ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY Percentage difference in crop suitability between no AMOC collapse (present day) and the effects of AMOC collapse plus 2.5°C of global warming. Decreases in suitability are represented with red shading, increases with blue. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/99d683a9-e34d-48dc-aa6a-95d3a3a1c1ba/spg+growing+season+reduction.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out FIGURE 2.5: IN OUR SCENARIO OF SPG COLLAPSE, REDUCED GROWING SEASON LENGTHS BECOME POSSIBLE OVER MAJOR UK GOOD GROWING AREAS Modelling results comparing changes in minimum growing season length (GSL) of post- and pre-SPG collapse in our SPG collapse scenario, mapped over crop growing locations, with darker shading representing larger reductions in GSL. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/7d4dc30a-6970-4f31-ba3a-79f6315254a9/spg+growing+season+reduction+GLOBAL.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out .FIGURE 2.6: IN OUR SCENARIO OF SPG COLLAPSE, REDUCED GROWING SEASON LENGTHS BECOME POSSIBLE IN KEY BREADBASKETS Modelling results comparing minimum growing season length (GSL) in pre- and post-collapse in our SPG collapse scenario, mapped over crop growing locations (in green), with darker shading representing larger reductions in GSL. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/3bc6e2de-ab60-4a91-b0ce-ab95adba7327/CAUSAL+LOOP.png Publications - Report: The Security Blind spot - Make it stand out FIGURE 4.1: HOW SOCIETIES REACT TO CLIMATE-SECURITY IMPACTS WILL DETERMINE THE CHANCES OF WORSE THREATS IN THE FUTURE Stylised diagram of the relationship between the effects of climate-security threats and the ability of societies to collectively address their root causes https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-royal-united-services-institute-rusi monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/blog-post-title-one-myz79 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/blog-post-title-four-nyck5 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/event-stories-of-15c-dead-or-alive-at-chatham-house monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-breaching-the-15c-target-could-be-used-as-an-excuse-to-delay-climate-action monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/blog-post-title-three-xdymn monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-success-failure-and-the-imperative-for-justice-in-climate-negotiations monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-climate-change-as-a-national-security-threat monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/talk-climate-change-and-insecurity-project monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-urgent-action-needed-for-africa-and-the-world-at-cop27 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/event-beyond-hopeium-and-doomism-chatham-house monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/talk-blavatnik-school-of-government monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-will-millennials-be-ready-to-lead-the-world-in-2040 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-covid-has-shown-us-the-consequences-of-not-taking-systemic-risk-seriously monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/0e41dd4e-aa80-4217-840c-5439334160ac/empty+supermarket.jpg Publications - Comment: Covid has shown us the consequences of not taking systemic risk seriously - Make it stand out Image Credit https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/blog-post-title-two-g876k monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/comment-how-can-future-leaders-prepare-for-an-environmentally-destabilized-world monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/00897efb-83cf-4bc7-ad40-163864a2ef79/f01a966ea7ce1c6a72e36fe52991b2fe.jpg Publications - Comment: How can future leaders prepare for an environmentally-destabilized world? - Make it stand out Image Credit. https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/event-how-can-future-leaders-be-better-prepared-for-a-more-environmentally-destabilised-world monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage daily 0.75 2026-03-31 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-times-2 monthly 0.5 2026-03-25 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/meet-the-farmers-podcast monthly 0.5 2026-03-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/05e7963f-ecb1-4057-9b6b-1e2b9f11515f/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+13.18.36.png Coverage - MEET THE FARMERS PODCAST - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-guardian-2 monthly 0.5 2026-03-23 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/lbc-news monthly 0.5 2026-03-17 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/prospect-magazine monthly 0.5 2026-03-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/1773700128652-F7XW8AGHW4RKL7GX2MIE/prospect.png Coverage - Prospect Magazine - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/washington-post monthly 0.5 2026-03-16 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-guardian-1 monthly 0.5 2026-03-16 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/pbs-terra monthly 0.5 2026-03-31 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/npr monthly 0.5 2026-03-16 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/ylcpi8l2bktwujgp51n1tysaejvv27 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/carnegie-endowment monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/new-scientist monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/153b952f-3abe-4f55-bdbb-839036c69e8d/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+08.17.53.png Coverage - New Scientist - Our report on ‘derailment risk’ was covered in an article by New Scientists. “There is a scenario where mitigation is pushed onto the back foot but that is a dead end, as less mitigation means more adaptation needs, and we will become stuck in a doom loop.” -Laurie Laybourn https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-dial monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/49c15e4f-3e30-429c-900c-adcfe707fa0d/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+09.44.53.png Coverage - The Dial - SCRI’s director, Laurie Laybourn, was quoted in a piece by The Dial: What’s the Point of a Global Climate Target? https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-times-1 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/india-today monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/cebffc40-2490-4a95-a64e-5c2569956923/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+07.57.56.png Coverage - India Today - Our report on derailment risk was covered by India Today in the piece ‘Climate action may 'derail' as 1.5 degrees Celsius limit breached, warns new study’ https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/physorg monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/7adf6c51-9ba3-477c-9f53-e51490b5724c/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+08.06.12.png Coverage - Phys.org - Our recent report on ‘derailment risk’ was covered by Phys.org. “Their work is the culmination of a two-year project that engaged hundreds of science and policy experts and officials around the world to consider how to "navigate the new climate reality." https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/business-green-1 monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/379a3239-9236-4d5d-99fa-627630605745/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+07.51.51.png Coverage - Business green - Our report on derailment risk was covered by James Murray in Business Green. https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-ecologist monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/91423a65-9349-4afb-bc16-d383fd225622/Screenshot+2025-11-10+at+07.25.40.png Coverage - The Ecologist - Our report on derailment risks was covered by the Ecologist. “The prevailing assumption is that the world has closed off pathways above 3°C warming – but in fact we could be derailed by vicious cycles in societies and nature. Catastrophic environmental change is still very much on the table” -Laurie Laybourn https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-guardian monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/66fa5c9696c4073ff217b52f/186d0e4b-20b4-41d0-bc62-a6de673f2351/G298wA4XcAAfJhd.jpeg Coverage - The Guardian - The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative’s new podcast documentary, Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5°C, was featured in the Guardian's best podcasts of the week. “This thoughtful series…explores what happens now that we are on track for the world’s temperature to rise by more than 1.5°C…Tough but crucial listening.” - Alexi Duggins https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-times monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/bbc-news monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/the-economist monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/bloomberg monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://www.scri.org.uk/coverage/global-association-of-risk-proffesionals-garp 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