Report: derailment risk

Two trends characterise the climate change predicament: accelerating progress, including a green technology revolution; and accelerating impacts and risks, which have been persistently underestimated. It is hoped that the former will prevail over the latter: that escalating climate impacts will reinforce action. But the opposite can also occur: climate consequences can distract from climate action. This will lead to more consequences and more distractions: a vicious cycle. We call this ‘derailment risk’.

Over 2024/25, SCRI led a project that explored how climate consequences can undermine climate action in a vicious cycle, the first systematic attempt to theorise this dynamic. Our aim: to inform climate action strategies and improve their ability to navigate the challenges brought by overshoot of 1.5°C. The project was undertaken with the UCL Climate Action Unit, with input from the University of Exeter and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). It was funded by the European Climate Foundation. The project outcomes were published in a final report, which you can access here.